Trump Tariffs 2.0: Are the Only Winners Trump Insiders?

September 2025 - After Donald Trump's first term in office concluded, we published a story, "New Study Shows Trump Trade War Was a Failure", which discussed an economic analysis performed by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. That study's findings indicated that the tariffs Mr. Trump imposed during his first term not only did not work, but they actually hurt the U.S. economy.

Those findings were no surprise to most business people, farmers, and economists, many of whom personally felt the negative impact of the trade war that was caused by those tariffs.

Despite that failed tariff policy, however, Mr. Trump has decided to impose an even more draconian tariff scheme during his second term. His stated rationale is the same as that which he used previously (see below). Yet many are questioning Mr. Trump's underlying reasons for this second round of tariffs. We'll discuss those questions in a moment.

On the record, and targeting Mr. Trump's hard-core supporters, the arguments for Mr. Trump's new round of tariffs include that a) they will result in a huge number of factories re-locating to the United States from abroad and b) the tariffs will generate billions of dollars in revenue, that revenue being paid by the foreign nations that are exporting goods to us.

Not only do these arguments imply or include an incorrect description of how tariffs actually work, it ignores the likelihood of another trade war when other nations respond with tariffs of their own. Consequently, there is no reason to believe the results of these tariffs will be any different this time around than they were the last time. (For the record, those of us at theProGunDemocrat.com support selective and targeted tariffs, the tariffs that Democrats have historically supported, not the arbitrary, always changing, across the board tariffs Mr. Trump favors.)

For those of you who may be unfamiliar with how tariffs work, tariffs are taxes imposed by the U.S. government on goods imported into the United States. Those taxes are paid by the businesses importing the foreign goods. They are not taxes paid by the exporting company or by the exporting country. The result is that these taxes will then be passed on, in full or in part, to the importers' customers (i.e., to you) in the form of higher prices.

So, if Mr. Trump is the smart businessman his supporters like to claim he is, why does Mr. Trump not understand this basic economic concept? Maybe he isn't as smart as some people like to think. Or is there another reason? Here is the argument of those who believe there is a more personal reason for his second attempt at imposing tariffs:

The argument starts by reminding us that many people who have come to know Mr. Trump over the years say that his primary focus, and his greatest skill, is grifting gullible people or, in this case, grifting the system in order to make money. (See our article, "Former Trump Officials Tried to Warn Us About Him", where many of his first-term advisors are on the record saying that Mr. Trump's first concern always has been what's in it for him, not what's good for the country.) Consequently, their argument on why Mr. Trump again is imposing tariffs is three-fold:

1 - Mr. Trump is imposing tariffs to bully other countries into concessions, not concession that benefit the U.S., but concessions that benefit the Trump Organization or his cronies. They use examples such as the following:

• the tariffs he imposed on Vietnam were reduced once the government of Vietnam agreed to fast-track the Trump Organization golf course and resort outside of Hanoi.

  
  

• the tariffs he imposed on Qatar were lower than those in many other Middle East countries, possibly due to Qatar having approved a Trump Organization golf course and resort in Qatar?

  
  

• There also is the related suspicion that U.S. businessmen who will profit from some specific tariffs may already have made, or will eventually make, some type of "contribution" that benefits either Mr. Trump or the Trump Organization.

  
  

• For example, if someone knew when Mr. Trump was going to impose high across-the-board tariffs, they could sell stocks ahead of that announcement because once that announcement was made by Mr. Trump, it would cause the stock market to go down.

  
  

• Or, if someone knew ahead of time when Mr. Trump was going to delay or lower his tariff proposals, they could buy stocks because once Mr. Trump made that announcement, it would cause the stock market to go up.

We're hearing more and more stories to this effect by investigative journalists and in independent media these days and will keep our ears open to see what develops.

P.S. A lawsuit challenging whether Mr. Trump even has the authority to impose his tariff scheme is working its way through the court system and likely will end up at the U.S. Supreme Court. The plaintiffs argue that the law Mr. Trump claims gives him the right to impose these tariffs unilaterally, without Congressional approval, actually does not give him that authority. They argue that only Congress, through legislation, can impose these types of tariffs. (Coincidentally, our house economist has taken that same position going back to Mr. Trump's first term and has been amazed that no one challenged his tariffs on those grounds during that first term.) We'll keep watch on this legal case as well.

(Signing ceremony image from nyt.com)